US Dollar Index Returns to 107, Pressuring Copper Prices; BC Copper Most-Traded Contract Closes Lower [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

SMM, February 28: Today, the most-traded BC copper 2504 futures contract opened at 68,780 yuan/mt, closed with a bearish candlestick, and traded below the daily moving average. Overnight, the most-traded BC copper 04 contract opened higher with a gap and fluctuated in the futures market amid a tug-of-war between longs and shorts, peaking at 68,870 yuan/mt. During the morning trading session, the futures market continued to fluctuate within the range of 68,450-68,690 yuan/mt. In the afternoon trading session, the most-traded BC copper 04 contract opened with an increase in short positions, hitting bottom at 68,270 yuan/mt before a slight rebound, and finally closed at 68,410 yuan/mt, down 180 yuan/mt or 0.26%. The decline was mainly attributed to a reduction in long positions, with open interest at 7,737 lots, a decrease of 188 lots compared to the previous trading day, and trading volume reaching 9,771 lots, an increase of 1,029 lots compared to the previous trading day.

Macro side, recent US economic data showed overall positive performance, coupled with rising uncertainty over tariffs, leading to a significant surge in the US dollar index, which returned to the 107 level, exerting downward pressure on copper prices. Intraday copper futures closed lower again.

SHFE copper 2504 futures contract closed at 76,840 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2504 contract price of 68,410 yuan/mt, its post-tax price is approximately 77,303 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2504 contract and the BC copper 2504 contract was -463 yuan/mt, maintaining a backwardation and widening compared to the previous trading day.